Predictive Modeling for Risk Assessment of Microbial Hazards

American Meat Science Association Risk assessment models of meat animal production and processing systems have great potential for assisting meat animal producers, meat animal processors, and regulatory agencies in making critical food safety decisions that impact public health. With the advent of computer software programs, such as @Risk (Palisade Corporation, Newfield, NY), that perform simulations of models created in common spreadsheet programs, such as MicroSoft Excel, it is now possible to create computer models that predict the risk of foodborne disease from meat products produced by specified farm to table scenarios. An important concept is that the design of a risk assessment model depends on its intended use. In other words, it is not possible to create a generic model that applies to all pathogens, animal systems, and meat products. Instead, basic modeling approaches can be developed and then adapted to meet specific modeling needs. In the current paper, I describe and demonstrate a computer model that assesses the impact of broiler production and processing on the risk of foodborne disease from cooked chicken. The model was designed to simulate the behavior of Salmonella on chicken. It is hoped that this model will prove useful for those interested in designing similar models for application with other pathogens, meat animal systems, and meat products.